Date: September 16, 2024
Daily Technical Outlook
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Metals and Energy
Bullions Index
The Benchmark index witnessed a Gap Up Opening on 13/9/24 and remain on sideways to higher side through out the day in expectations that FED likely to adopt larger than expected rate cut in next meeting which fall in dollar index and sharp rally seen in bullion which all resulted in index close near days high and well above over previous day close.
Now, Index has Support at 18200 – 17650, as long hold, more Upside expected towards 18600-19000 in short term. Other side only Sustain below 17650 seen again 17100-17000 in days to come.
Price is trading above short term 13-days SMA and RSI at 64 mark with upward slope indicates more room for Upside in the counter. Other side below above zero line MACD seen buying seaport at every dip.
Metal Index
The Benchmark index seen a Gap Up Opening on 13/9/24 and remain on higher side through out the day as fall in dollar index and demand hope from top metals consumer China after market expectations that China might cut rates for mortgage to support economy, positive for base metals packupports metals and which all resulted in index close near days high and well above over previous day closing.
Now index has a Support at 16950-750-500-400, as long hold, more Upside expected towards 17300-17500-18200 in medium term. While on lower side only sustain below 16400 seen 16100-16000 again in days to come.
Price is trading below short term 13 SMA while RSI at 56-marks with Downward slope indicates mix of the view in the counter. Other side below zero line MACD indicates selling pressure at every rally in the counter.
Technical Levels
| Commodity | Contract Month | CLOSE | S1 | S2 | R1 | R2 | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BULLIONS(Rs.) | |||||||
| Gold M | Oct | 73367 | 73100 | 72700 | 73500 | 73800 | BULLISH |
| Silver M | Nov. | 89072 | 88600 | 87600 | 89700 | 90500 | BULLISH |
| Energy | |||||||
| Crude Oil | Sep. | 5770 | 5750 | 5680 | 5850 | 5910 | SIDEWAYS |
| Natural Gas | Sep. | 193.90 | 193 | 187 | 203 | 210 | SIDEWAYS |
| BASEMETALS | |||||||
| Copper | Sep. | 892.20 | 793.0 | 785 | 804 | 815 | SIDEWAYS |
| Zinc | Sep. | 267.90 | 265.5 | 263.0 | 268.60 | 270.0 | BULLISH |
| Lead | Sep. | 185.35 | 182 | 180 | 187 | 190 | SIDEWAYS |
| Nickel | Sep. | 1386.40 | 1300 | 1250 | 1400 | 1450 | SIDEWAYS |
Agri Morning Buzz
| Commodity (NCDX/MCX) | Downside Target | Stop loss (for sell trade) | Sell below | Buy above | Stop loss (for Buy trade) | Upside Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GUARGUM (Oct) | 10300-10100 | 10700 | 10600 | 10700 | 10600 | 10900-11000 |
| JEERAUNJHA (Oct) | 24800-24500 | 25400 | 25300 | 26000 | 25900 | 26500-26700 |
| COCUDAKL (Dec) | 2990-2970 | 3030 | 3050 | 3090 | 3070 | 3130-3150 |
| CASTOR (Oct) | 5900-5800 | 6200 | 6100 | 6250 | 6150 | 6500-6600 |
| TURMERIC (Oct) | 13000-12900 | 13400 | 13300 | 14150 | 14050 | 14400-14500 |
Derivative Report
Nifty
- September future on Friday close at 25372.6 on a positive note with -0.86% decrease in OI and with a price increase of 0.06% (16.3) indicating Short Covering. (SC)
- During the week Nifty made a high of 25433 and low of 24816 and settled at 25372.6.
- Annualized volatility index VIX has decreased from 14.23% to 12.55% down by -11.80%.
Bank Nifty
- September future on Friday close at 51929.4 on a positive note with 3.05% increase in OI with a price increase of 0.33% (170.2) indicating Long Buildup. (SB)
- During the week BNF made a high of 52044 and low of 50255.55 and settled at 51929.40.
- Bank Nifty IV has decreased from 15.3% to 13.7% decreased by -10.45%
- PCR OI during the week has made a high of 1.17 & low of 0.60 and close on weekly basis at 1.09 levels compared to 0.61 of last week.
- PCR OI currently is at 1.09 level which is above the median line of 0.79 and shows a tug of war between Put and Call Writers.
- Option build-up shows that Nifty has Support at 25300 followed by 25200 and Resistance is placed at 25400 followed by 25350.
- The pivot level for Nifty is placed at 24900.
- VIX started the week with a low volatility of 14.06 gradually moving towards a low of 12.55 and closing at 12.55.
- The decrease in VIX indicates decrease in volatility.
- VIX trading near 12.55 can lead a move towards 11, whereas VIX trading above 15 can lead a move towards 18.
- We expect the volatility to trade between 11-18 level.
- The Nifty Futures started the week with an open interest (OI) of 15,128,450 contracts, with short positions being squared off.
- During the week, a total of 31,349,725 short contracts were covered.
- The recent rise in the Nifty Index is primarily due to this short covering.
- In previous week FII’s Total Number of contracts in INDEX FUTURE conclude at 601115 compared to 550850 contract adding 50265.
- The total open interest position of FII’s in Index future is at 601115 which on weekly basis has increased by 9.12%.
- During this period, the highest LS Ratio was 2.06 and the lowest was 1.74.
- In previous week FII’s no of contract in Stock Future conclude at 4212030 compared to 4161927 contract.
- The total FII’s OI in stock future is at 4212030 which on weekly basis has increased by 1.2%
Weekly Long Build-up
| Script | Price (%) | OI (%) |
|---|---|---|
| DIVISLAB | 5.34% | 39.48% |
| CANFINHOME | 7.03% | 21.96% |
| PAGEIND | 7.36% | 17.21% |
| AUROPHARMA | 3.08% | 13.28% |
| INDIAMART | 2.75% | 13.13% |
Weekly Short Build-up
| Script | Price (%) | OI (%) |
|---|---|---|
| GRANULES | -16.85% | 102.29% |
| AARTIIND | -4.03% | 20.85% |
| ATUL | -0.11% | 20.25% |
| RECLTD | -4.05% | 17.72% |
| TATAMOTORS | -4.98% | 17.54% |
Weekly Short Covering
| Script | Price (%) | OI (%) |
|---|---|---|
| AXISBANK | 3.76% | -11.53% |
| MFSL | 1.21% | -10.62% |
| ABFRL | 5.02% | -10.62% |
| DIXON | 5.18% | -10.01% |
| AUBANK | 0.88% | -9.66% |
Weekly Short Covering
| Script | Price (%) | OI (%) |
|---|---|---|
| DABUR | -0.38% | -5.72% |
| VEDL | -1.42% | -5.61% |
| JKCEMENT | -0.78% | -4.26% |
| ICICIPRULI | -0.37% | -4.23% |
| IOC | -1.50% | -3.43% |
BNF STOCKS CHG IN OI
OTHER INDEX
| SECTOR | 09th Sep | 13th Sep | PRICE CHG | 09th Sep | 13th Sep | OI CHG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FIN NIFTY | 23788.95 | 23978.45 | 0.80% | 123750 | 74550 | -39.76% |
| MID NIFTY | 13055.45 | 13355.2 | 2.30% | 2249900 | 2299450 | 2.20% |
| NIFTY NXT 50 | 74561.75 | 75502.1 | 1.26% | 15070 | 15860 | 5.24% |
- Short Covering is observed in Fin Nifty.
- Long Build-up is observed in Mid Nifty.
- Long Build-up is observed in Nifty Next 50.
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